Flood Risk Mapping Based on Vulnerability Factors Assessment and Raster Analysis

This study aims to assess and map flood disaster risk in Central and North Jakarta, Indonesia, by integrating spatial analysis and vulnerability-based flood risk modeling. The objective is to identify vulnerability levels and the spatial probability of flood occurrence to support risk-based decision-making and mitigation planning. The analysis incorporates four vulnerability components (social, economic, physical, and environmental), combined with flood vulnerability raster data derived from spatial overlays. A multi-criteria spatial classification and weighted scoring approach was applied to determine vulnerability levels and categorize flood risk zones. The findings revealed that Central Jakarta has a spatial vulnerability score of 2.5, while North Jakarta has a score of 2.6, indicating high vulnerability in both regions. Component scores for Central Jakarta were social (2–moderate), economic (3–high), physical (3–high), and environmental (2–moderate). In comparison, North Jakarta demonstrated higher environmental vulnerability (3–high), with other components showing similar levels. Approximately 90.69% of Central Jakarta and 85.82% of North Jakarta lie within high vulnerability zones, resulting in spatial flood probabilities of 0.999 and 0.931, respectively. The novelty of this research lies in integrating multi-dimensional vulnerability factors with raster-based spatial probability modeling, providing comprehensive flood risk mapping for urban coastal regions.